Single poll

Allensbach poll of 5 December 2024 for the Lower Saxony state election

Commissioned by
Drei Quellen-Mediengruppe
Fieldwork period
11 to 29 Nov 2024
Respondents
1,007
Method
Persönlich
  • CDU33.0%+3.0
  • SPD27.0%-2.0
  • AfD16.0%-5.0
  • Grüne10.0%-1.0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler4.0%
  • BSW4.0%
  • Others2.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 5 Feb 2024.

In this poll Allensbach has CDU ahead on 33.0%, followed by SPD on 27.0%. 1,007 people were surveyed from 11 to 29 Nov 2024, method Persönlich, commissioned by Drei Quellen-Mediengruppe.

Compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 5 Feb 2024, AfD loses 5.0 points, CDU gains 3.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Allensbach has CDU 1.5 points higher and SPD 1.5 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU +1.5average 31.5
  • SPD +1.5average 25.5
  • Grüne -1.0average 11.0
  • BSW -1.0average 5.0
  • AfD +0.5average 15.5
  • FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

135 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 52 seatsSPD: 42 seatsAfD: 25 seatsGrüne: 16 seatsMajority from 68135of 135 seats
  • CDU52
  • SPD42
  • AfD25
  • Grüne16
  • CDU + SPD94 of 135
  • CDU + AfD77 of 135
  • CDU + Grüne68 of 135
  • SPD + AfD + Grüne83 of 135
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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