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Election poll Poland

Parliamentary election Poland: current election polls

Average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 45 days, as of 22 September 2026, 8 pollsters. KO leads with 33.0%. Next election: expected autumn 2027, plus the Poland election forecast 2027.

Next electionautumn 2027to the election forecastLast election 15 Oct 2023PiS 35.4%official result, Państwowa Komisja WyborczaGovernment since 13 Dec 2023KO + PSL + Polska 2050 + Lewica221 of 460 seats according to the polls, no majorityPolls, as of 22 Sep 2026KO 33.0%leading in the average across all pollsters
Election poll Poland
Average of each pollster's latest poll, shares in percent
  • KO33.0%+2.3
  • PiS20.6%-14.8
  • Konfederacja14.6%+7.4
  • KKP9.1%
  • Lewica8.0%-0.6
  • Razem4.6%
  • PSL2.8%
  • Polska 20501.3%
  • Others6.0%+2.3

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 15 Oct 2023.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 22 Sep 2026
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Basis

These polls feed into the average

The latest poll from each pollster within the last 45 days, averaged without weighting.

Polls in the average, Poland
PollsterPublishedKOPiSKonfederacjaKKPLewicaRazemPSLPolska 2050
Social Changes22 Sep 202630.924.114.46.79.45.21.61.7
Pollster22 Sep 202632.1722.5914.177.287.664.973.591.54
OGB22 Sep 202636.522.613.859.436.853.161.091.41
Research Partner21 Sep 202632.521.712.69.97.74.72.12.1
United Surveys20 Sep 202633.518.313.711.69.43.440.5
IBRiS19 Sep 202632.518.216.110.583.34.60.2
Opinia249 Sep 20263519.514.17.784.72.51.6
CBOS9 Sep 202631.31817.79.37.17.331
Projection

Seat projection for the Sejm

460 seats. Five per cent threshold for parties, eight per cent for electoral alliances. The 460 seats are allocated in 41 constituencies by d'Hondt; we simplify by calculating nationwide, which slightly underestimates large parties.

Seat projection Poland
Projected seat distribution based on the polling average
KO: 178 seatsPiS: 111 seatsKonfederacja: 79 seatsKKP: 49 seatsLewica: 43 seatsMajority from 231460of 460 seats
  • KO178
  • PiS111
  • Konfederacja79
  • KKP49
  • Lewica43
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 22 Sep 2026
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Majorities

Which coalitions would have a majority?

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Whether an alliance is politically feasible is not something the arithmetic can tell.

Coalition calculator Poland
Seats based on the polling average, tap parties to test an alliance
Coalition calculator: tap the parties
KO + Lewica
KO: 178 seatsLewica: 43 seatsPiS: 111 seatsKonfederacja: 79 seatsKKP: 49 seats221/460
10 seats short of a majority
Projected seat distribution with 460 seats, majority from 231.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 22 Sep 2026
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  • KO + PSL + Polska 2050 + LewicaGovernment, no majority221 of 460
  • KO + PiS289 of 460
  • KO + Konfederacja257 of 460
  • KO + KKP + Lewica270 of 460
  • PiS + Konfederacja + KKP239 of 460
  • PiS + Konfederacja + Lewica233 of 460
Simulation

How safe are the majorities?

The seat distribution is recalculated 3,000 times with randomly varied polling figures. The spread per party follows from the sampling error and a flat systematic deviation of 1.5 points, because there is no accuracy history of our own for Poland yet.

Majority probabilities Poland
Share of simulations in which an alliance holds a majority

Majority in parliament

  • KO + PSL + Polska 2050 + LewicaGovernment14%
  • KO + PiSover 99%
  • KO + Konfederacja92%
  • KO + KKP + Lewica99%
  • PiS + Konfederacja + KKP55%
  • PiS + Konfederacja + Lewica37%
  • KO + KKP23%
  • PiS + Konfederacjaunder 1%
  • PiS + KKPunder 1%
  • Konfederacja + KKPunder 1%

Clearing the electoral threshold

  • Polska 2050 (±1.5)1%
  • PSL (±1.5)7%
  • Razem (±1.5)38%
  • Lewica (±1.5)98%

3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 22 Sep 2026
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Trend

Polling trend since the parliamentary election 2023

Polling trend Poland
Rolling average and individual polls, shares in percent
010203040202420252026KOPiSKonfederacjaKKPLewicaRazemPSLPolska 2050
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 45 days. Period 1 Jul 2023 to 22 Sep 2026. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 22 Sep 2026
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Background

The parliamentary election in Poland at a glance

The Sejm has 460 members and is elected for four years; seats are allocated in 41 constituencies by d'Hondt, with a five per cent threshold for parties and eight per cent for alliances.

In the 2023 election PiS remained the largest party but lost its majority; since December 2023 Donald Tusk has governed with KO, PSL, Polska 2050 and Lewica. The Trzecia Droga alliance of PSL and Polska 2050 ran jointly in 2023 and has been polled separately since 2025.

Most polls come from United Surveys, Opinia24, Pollster, IBRiS and CBOS. Some pollsters publish figures including undecided voters; we rescale those polls to decided voters.

Parliament
Sejm
Seats
460
Threshold
5 per cent
Last election
15 October 2023
Next election
expected autumn 2027
Government
KO, PSL, Polska 2050, Lewica (Prime Minister Donald Tusk (KO))

Result of the parliamentary election 2023

PiS 35.4%KO 30.7%Trzecia Droga 14.4%Lewica 8.6%Konfederacja 7.2%Others 3.7%

Source: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, Sejm election 2023.

Archive

All polls for the parliamentary election

326 polls since 1 July 2023. Pollsters: United Surveys (64), IBRiS (53), Opinia24 (53), Pollster (48), CBOS (42), OGB (20), Social Changes (18), Research Partner (17), IPSOS (7), ARC Rynek i Opinia (1), Ipsos (1), CBM Indicator (1), IBSP (1).

The 40 latest polls, Poland
PollsterPublishedKOPiSKonfederacjaKKPLewicaRazemPSLPolska 2050
Social Changes22 Sep 202630.924.114.46.79.45.21.61.7
Pollster22 Sep 202632.1722.5914.177.287.664.973.591.54
OGB22 Sep 202636.522.613.859.436.853.161.091.41
Research Partner21 Sep 202632.521.712.69.97.74.72.12.1
United Surveys20 Sep 202633.518.313.711.69.43.440.5
IBRiS19 Sep 202632.518.216.110.583.34.60.2
Social Changes14 Sep 202630.42511.58.98.64.53.51.2
Opinia249 Sep 20263519.514.17.784.72.51.6
CBOS9 Sep 202631.31817.79.37.17.331
United Surveys6 Sep 202632.820.816.47.47.24.340.5
Pollster2 Sep 202633.3422.2313.548.028.234.063.311.66
IBRiS27 Aug 202630.521.814.59.29.234.70.4
Social Changes24 Aug 2026292415107532
United Surveys23 Aug 202629.722.415.49.27.74.43.30.9
IBRiS22 Aug 202631.220.114.79.87.35.13.90.9
CBOS20 Aug 202631.620.215.9104.75.42.94.2
OGB12 Aug 202633.5322.3415.8210.515.993.641.740.94
United Surveys9 Aug 20263219.911.810.783.95.40.7
Opinia245 Aug 202632.818.616.69.77.65.21.21.4
Social Changes3 Aug 202629251399432
IBRiS2 Aug 202630.118.515.810.38.32.54.41.5
ARC Rynek i Opinia2 Aug 202634.227.610.57.96.62.62.61.3
United Surveys25 Jul 202631.217.414.813.58.52.13.60.7
Pollster25 Jul 202631.7621.5213.49.067.714.733.722.14
IBRiS25 Jul 202633.519.213.712.17.81.83.10.6
United Surveys17 Jul 202631.220.312.911.78.92.74.10.6
Pollster17 Jul 202632.4825.4114.267.267.576.062.223.99
Opinia2415 Jul 202633.524.41310.27.24.72.91.5
Social Changes13 Jul 2026323011810331
United Surveys12 Jul 202630.224.316.610.87.94.25.50.6
Opinia248 Jul 202634.124.814.68.7103.31.71.8
CBOS8 Jul 202630.623.318.5106.554.41.3
IBRiS3 Jul 202631.525.114.411.99.12.54.21.1
Pollster1 Jul 202632.6227.5413.387.997.294.293.782.16
United Surveys28 Jun 202632.326.811.811.68.63.14.51.2
IBRiS27 Jun 202630.726.5159.993.44.50.9
Pollster21 Jun 202634.0126.1713.937.667.824.583.551.61
Research Partner15 Jun 202634.827.912.37.49.83.51.51.4
Pollster15 Jun 202633.0527.1312.186.697.975.933.642.64
Pollster15 Jun 202632.7227.37127.258.065.773.652.51

The 40 latest of 326 polls.

Sources

Data and licence

Polls: Wikipedia authors, article "Opinion polling for the next Polish parliamentary election", licence CC BY-SA 4.0, retrieved on 24 Sep 2026 (revision 1376467956). Averages, seats, coalitions and probabilities are our own calculations by wahlergebnisse.io and are likewise licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. Election result and government: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, Sejm election 2023.

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