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Election poll Poland

Parliamentary election Poland: current election polls

Average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 45 days, as of 4 November 2026, 10 pollsters. KO leads with 32.8%. Next election: expected autumn 2027, plus the Poland election forecast 2027.

Lead at the top
KO 10.6 points ahead of PiS
Movement in 45 days
PiS +3.8 · KO −1.8 · Razem −1.6
Compared with the 2023 election
KO +2.1 points
Basis
10 pollsters, latest poll 4 Nov 2026
Next electionautumn 2027to the election forecastLast election 15 Oct 2023PiS 35.4%official result, Państwowa Komisja WyborczaGovernment since 13 Dec 2023KO + PSL + Polska 2050 + Lewica216 of 460 seats according to the polls, no majorityPolls, as of 4 Nov 2026KO 32.8%leading in the average across all pollsters
Election poll Poland
Average of each pollster's latest poll, shares in percent
  • KO32.8%+2.1
  • PiS22.2%-13.2
  • Konfederacja13.4%+6.2
  • KKP9.7%
  • Lewica7.1%-1.5
  • Razem4.3%
  • PSL3.2%
  • Polska 20501.4%
  • Others6.0%+2.3

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 15 Oct 2023.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 4 Nov 2026
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Basis

These polls feed into the average

The latest poll from each pollster within the last 45 days, averaged without weighting.

Polls in the average, Poland
PollsterPublishedKOPiSKonfederacjaKKPLewicaRazemPSLPolska 2050
Opinia244 Nov 202633.721.312.98.16.85.82.92.6
CBOS4 Nov 202633.518.818.39.3742.11.3
United Surveys2 Nov 202630.520.414.91384.33.20
Pollster27 Oct 202633.4422.3512.247.847.14.273.492.65
IPSOS22 Oct 202634261086451
Social Changes19 Oct 202630.726.413.27.37.93.62.81.5
IBRiS16 Oct 202629.820.513.612.27.54.15.50.5
OGB13 Oct 202635.9125.0311.811.316.122.752.161.29
SW Research30 Sep 202633.719.814.310.275.63–
Research Partner21 Sep 202632.521.712.69.97.74.72.12.1
Min – Max29.8–35.9118.8–26.410–18.37.3–136–82.75–5.82.1–5.50–2.65

For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.

Projection

Seat projection for the Sejm

460 seats. Five per cent threshold for parties, eight per cent for electoral alliances. The 460 seats are allocated in 41 constituencies by d'Hondt; we simplify by calculating nationwide, which slightly underestimates large parties.

Seat projection Poland
Projected seat distribution based on the polling average
KO: 178 seatsPiS: 120 seatsKonfederacja: 72 seatsKKP: 52 seatsLewica: 38 seatsMajority from 231460of 460 seats
  • KO178
  • PiS120
  • Konfederacja72
  • KKP52
  • Lewica38
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 4 Nov 2026
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Majorities

Which coalitions would have a majority?

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Whether an alliance is politically feasible is not something the arithmetic can tell.

Coalition calculator Poland
Seats based on the polling average, tap parties to test an alliance
Coalition calculator: tap the parties
KO + Lewica
KO: 178 seatsLewica: 38 seatsPiS: 120 seatsKonfederacja: 72 seatsKKP: 52 seats216/460
15 seats short of a majority
Majorities
Projected seat distribution with 460 seats, majority from 231.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 4 Nov 2026
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  • KO + PSL + Polska 2050 + LewicaGovernment, no majority216 of 460
  • KO + PiS298 of 460
  • KO + Konfederacja250 of 460
  • KO + KKP + Lewica268 of 460
  • PiS + Konfederacja + KKP244 of 460
Simulation

How safe are the majorities?

The seat distribution is recalculated 3,000 times with randomly varied polling figures. The spread per party follows from the sampling error and a flat systematic deviation of 1.5 points, because there is no accuracy history of our own for Poland yet.

Majority probabilities Poland
Share of simulations in which an alliance holds a majority

Majority in parliament

  • KO + PSL + Polska 2050 + LewicaGovernment8%
  • KO + PiSover 99%
  • KO + Konfederacja83%
  • KO + KKP + Lewica97%
  • PiS + Konfederacja + KKP72%
  • KO + KKP31%
  • PiS + Konfederacjaunder 1%
  • PiS + KKPunder 1%
  • Konfederacja + KKPunder 1%

Clearing the electoral threshold

  • Polska 2050 (±1.5)1%
  • PSL (±1.5)11%
  • Razem (±1.5)32%
  • Lewica (±1.5)91%

3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 4 Nov 2026
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Trend

Polling trend since the parliamentary election 2023

Polling trend Poland
Rolling average and individual polls, shares in percent
01020304050202420252026KOPiSKonfederacjaKKPLewicaRazemPSLPolska 2050
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 45 days. Period 15 Jul 2023 to 4 Nov 2026. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 4 Nov 2026
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Background

The parliamentary election in Poland at a glance

The Sejm has 460 members and is elected for four years; seats are allocated in 41 constituencies by d'Hondt, with a five per cent threshold for parties and eight per cent for alliances.

In the 2023 election PiS remained the largest party but lost its majority; since December 2023 Donald Tusk has governed with KO, PSL, Polska 2050 and Lewica. The Trzecia Droga alliance of PSL and Polska 2050 ran jointly in 2023 and has been polled separately since 2025.

Most polls come from United Surveys, Opinia24, Pollster, IBRiS and CBOS. Some pollsters publish figures including undecided voters; we rescale those polls to decided voters.

Parliament
Sejm
Seats
460
Threshold
5 per cent
Last election
15 October 2023
Next election
expected autumn 2027
Government
KO, PSL, Polska 2050, Lewica (Prime Minister Donald Tusk (KO))

Result of the parliamentary election 2023

PiS 35.4%KO 30.7%Trzecia Droga 14.4%Lewica 8.6%Konfederacja 7.2%Others 3.7%

Source: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, Sejm election 2023.

Archive

All polls for the parliamentary election

345 polls since 15 July 2023. Pollsters: United Surveys (67), Opinia24 (56), IBRiS (55), Pollster (49), CBOS (44), OGB (25), Social Changes (19), Research Partner (17), IPSOS (8), SW Research (1), ARC Rynek i Opinia (1), Ipsos (1), CBM Indicator (1), IBSP (1).

The 40 latest polls, Poland
PollsterPublishedKOPiSKonfederacjaKKPLewicaRazemPSLPolska 2050
Opinia244 Nov 202633.721.312.98.16.85.82.92.6
CBOS4 Nov 202633.518.818.39.3742.11.3
United Surveys2 Nov 202630.520.414.91384.33.20
Pollster27 Oct 202633.4422.3512.247.847.14.273.492.65
IPSOS22 Oct 202634261086451
Pollster21 Oct 202633.5422.0612.188.037.775.143.441.72
Social Changes19 Oct 202630.726.413.27.37.93.62.81.5
United Surveys18 Oct 202632.418.814.410.983.54.80.4
IBRiS16 Oct 202629.820.513.612.27.54.15.50.5
OGB13 Oct 202635.9125.0311.811.316.122.752.161.29
OGB11 Oct 202640.21914.53.25.98.60.95
CBOS8 Oct 202634.321.815.38.73.65.93.41.4
Pollster7 Oct 202633.4822.5513.297.337.84.043.211.8
Opinia247 Oct 202635.718.714.98.273.82.22.4
United Surveys4 Oct 202632.719.215.19.67.94.24.70.5
SW Research30 Sep 202633.719.814.310.275.63–
OGB27 Sep 202637.722.512.85.36.29.70.91.8
OGB24 Sep 202636.3915.3512.785.395.4212.462.594.22
Social Changes22 Sep 202630.924.114.46.79.45.21.61.7
Pollster22 Sep 202632.1722.5914.177.287.664.973.591.54
OGB22 Sep 202636.522.613.859.436.853.161.091.41
Research Partner21 Sep 202632.521.712.69.97.74.72.12.1
United Surveys20 Sep 202633.518.313.711.69.43.440.5
IBRiS19 Sep 202632.518.216.110.583.34.60.2
Social Changes14 Sep 202630.42511.58.98.64.53.51.2
Opinia2414 Sep 202632.317.713.65.98.6100.91.3
Opinia249 Sep 20263519.514.17.784.72.51.6
CBOS9 Sep 202631.31817.79.37.17.331
IBRiS8 Sep 202639.814.411.610.49.79.11.11.5
United Surveys6 Sep 202632.820.816.47.47.24.340.5
Pollster2 Sep 202633.3422.2313.548.028.234.063.311.66
OGB31 Aug 202649.19.210.45.410.28.70.91.4
IBRiS27 Aug 202630.521.814.59.29.234.70.4
Social Changes24 Aug 2026292415107532
United Surveys23 Aug 202629.722.415.49.27.74.43.30.9
IBRiS22 Aug 202631.220.114.79.87.35.13.90.9
CBOS20 Aug 202631.620.215.9104.75.42.94.2
OGB12 Aug 202633.5322.3415.8210.515.993.641.740.94
United Surveys9 Aug 20263219.911.810.783.95.40.7
Opinia245 Aug 202632.818.616.69.77.65.21.21.4
Min – Max29–49.19.2–26.410–18.33.2–133.6–10.22.75–12.460.9–5.50–5

For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.

The 40 latest of 345 polls.

Sources

Data and licence

Polls: Wikipedia authors, article "Opinion polling for the next Polish parliamentary election", licence CC BY-SA 4.0, retrieved on 9 Nov 2026 (revision 1384087383). Averages, seats, coalitions and probabilities are our own calculations by wahlergebnisse.io and are likewise licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. Election result and government: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, Sejm election 2023.

Method · All countries · Election polls Germany

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