Poland election forecast 2027: who is ahead?
Parliamentary election in Poland, expected autumn 2027. Polls as of 22 September 2026, 8 pollsters. KO leads with 33.0%; in over 99% of the simulated outcomes KO remains the largest party. Polls are not a prediction but the mood today; a lot can shift before the election.
If the parliamentary election were held today
Average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 45 days, compared with the result of the parliamentary election 2023.
- KO33.0%+2.3
- PiS20.6%-14.8
- Konfederacja14.6%+7.4
- KKP9.1%
- Lewica8.0%-0.6
- Razem4.6%
- PSL2.8%
- Polska 20501.3%
- Others6.0%+2.3
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 15 Oct 2023.
What the Sejm would look like today
460 seats. Five per cent threshold for parties, eight per cent for electoral alliances. The 460 seats are allocated in 41 constituencies by d'Hondt; we simplify by calculating nationwide, which slightly underestimates large parties. The government of KO, PSL, Polska 2050, Lewica would have 221 seats and thus no longer hold a majority.
- KO178
- PiS111
- Konfederacja79
- KKP49
- Lewica43
- KO + PSL + Polska 2050 + LewicaGovernment, no majority221 of 460
- KO + PiS289 of 460
- KO + Konfederacja257 of 460
- KO + KKP + Lewica270 of 460
- PiS + Konfederacja + KKP239 of 460
- PiS + Konfederacja + Lewica233 of 460
How likely are the majorities?
3,000 simulations with randomly varied polling figures; spread from sampling error and a flat systematic deviation of 1.5 points. This is the uncertainty of the polls today, not the uncertainty up to election day.
Majority in parliament
- KO + PSL + Polska 2050 + LewicaGovernment14%
- KO + PiSover 99%
- KO + Konfederacja92%
- KO + KKP + Lewica99%
- PiS + Konfederacja + KKP55%
- PiS + Konfederacja + Lewica37%
- KO + KKP23%
- PiS + Konfederacjaunder 1%
- PiS + KKPunder 1%
- Konfederacja + KKPunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- Polska 2050 (±1.5)1%
- PSL (±1.5)7%
- Razem (±1.5)38%
- Lewica (±1.5)98%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
What has shifted since the last election
What this forecast can and cannot do
For Germany we have calculated how far polling averages were off depending on the distance to the election: two years out a good four points per party on average, one week out a good one and a half. For Poland we do not have this history yet; the order of magnitude is likely to be similar. The analysis for Germany shows the table.
Polls: Wikipedia authors, article "Opinion polling for the next Polish parliamentary election" (CC BY-SA 4.0). Election result: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, Sejm election 2023. Calculations: wahlergebnisse.io.