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Pollster

Ipsos poll: latest Sunday question

Latest federal Sunday question of 8 October 2026: AfD 28.0%, CDU/CSU 20.0%, Grüne 15.0%, SPD 13.0%, Linke 12.0%, FDP 4.0%. 83 polls since 29 January 2017, 10 of them in 2026. Latest release on 8 October 2026. Recently commissioned by: DER SPIEGEL, Ipsos, Euronews.

Our analysis

How does Ipsos compare?

House effect since 7 November 2025 in federal polls: CDU/CSU -1.2, Linke +1.2, Grüne +0.6 relative to the average of the other pollsters (12 polls). Accuracy: rank 2 of 13 with an average deviation of 1.0 points per party across 4 elections since 2017. All pollsters compared.

  • CDU/CSU -1.2
  • Linke +1.2
  • Grüne +0.6
  • FDP +0.4
  • SPD +0.1
  • AfD +0.1
  • BSW -0.1
Deviation of the final Ipsos poll before each election from the result
ElectionPoll ofMean deviationBiggest miss
Bundestag 23 Feb 202521 Feb 20250.7Linke -1.8
European election 9 Jun 20247 Jun 20241.0Grüne +3.1
Bundestag 26 Sep 202124 Sep 20211.2CDU/CSU -2.1
European election 26 May 201924 May 20191.1Grüne -2.5
Federal

All Ipsos federal election polls

80 polls since 29 January 2017, newest first; each row with date, values, fieldwork period and sample size.

All Ipsos federal election polls
PollsterPublishedAfDCDU/CSUGrüneSPDLinkeFDPBSWOthers
Ipsos8 Oct 20262820151312435
Ipsos2 Sep 20262721151213534
Ipsos6 Aug 20262821151213533
Ipsos9 Jul 20262822141313433
Ipsos11 Jun 20262723141312434
Ipsos13 May 20262623141312435
Ipsos1 Apr 20262524141411534
Ipsos5 Mar 20262425141511434
Ipsos16 Feb 20262623131512434
Ipsos15 Jan 20262623131511435
Ipsos4 Dec 20252623131510445
Ipsos12 Nov 20252624121511444
Ipsos9 Oct 20252523111512455
Ipsos10 Sep 20252524121512345
Ipsos7 Aug 20252525111511355
Ipsos10 Jul 20252426121512344
Ipsos5 Jun 20252327111611345
Ipsos14 May 20252525121510454
Ipsos9 Apr 20252524111511455
Ipsos7 Mar 2025222912159454
Ipsos21 Feb 20252130121674.54.55
Ipsos20 Feb 20252031131574.54.55
Ipsos6 Feb 2025212913164458
Ipsos28 Jan 2025193014163468
Ipsos9 Jan 2025193013163476
Ipsos5 Dec 2024183213163375
Ipsos7 Nov 2024183211153585
Ipsos10 Oct 2024183111153487
Ipsos12 Sep 2024183211133498
Ipsos8 Aug 2024163013143589
Ipsos11 Jul 20241630121435810
Ipsos13 Jun 2024172913153587
Ipsos10 May 2024182813164576
Ipsos10 Apr 2024182913154576
Ipsos8 Mar 2024182914153576
Ipsos8 Feb 2024183013154485
Ipsos10 Jan 20242230131556–9
Ipsos7 Dec 20232129131656–10
Ipsos9 Nov 20232028151756–9
Ipsos12 Oct 20232226141757–9
Ipsos8 Sep 20232126141768–8
Ipsos9 Aug 20232226151758–7
Ipsos12 Jul 20232226141857–8
Ipsos9 Jun 20231928132068–6
Ipsos11 May 20231629151958–8
Ipsos7 Apr 20231527172148–8
Ipsos10 Mar 20231527182057–8
Ipsos9 Feb 20231626172058–8
Ipsos13 Jan 20231527181967–8
Ipsos8 Dec 20221427191967–8
Ipsos9 Nov 20221327201967–8
Ipsos12 Oct 20221327211867–8
Ipsos7 Sep 20221226211968–8
Ipsos16 Aug 20221127221958–8
Ipsos8 Jul 20221026202259–8
Ipsos13 Jun 20221027192349–8
Ipsos13 May 202211251624511–8
Ipsos8 Apr 202212231525612–7
Ipsos10 Mar 202211241625611–7
Ipsos9 Feb 20221224162588–7
Ipsos12 Jan 202212211525611–10
Ipsos24 Sep 202111221626712–6
Ipsos17 Sep 202111211827710–6
Ipsos31 Aug 202111211925711–6
Ipsos3 Aug 202111272018710–7
Ipsos29 Jun 202110282115811–7
Ipsos28 May 202113252313911–6
Ipsos13 Jul 201783972688–4
Ipsos29 Jun 201793972588–4
Ipsos15 Jun 201793872687–4
Ipsos1 Jun 201783872887–4
Ipsos18 May 201783772986–5
Ipsos4 May 201793673085–5
Ipsos20 Apr 2017103573085–5
Ipsos6 Apr 2017103483085–5
Ipsos23 Mar 2017113383086–4
Ipsos8 Mar 2017113382996–4
Ipsos26 Feb 20171232730105–4
Ipsos12 Feb 2017123382995–4
Ipsos29 Jan 201713341123105–4
Min – Max8–2820–397–2312–303–133–123–93–10

For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.

Average of all pollsters for the federal election

All parliaments

Latest poll per election

Other pollsters

Election tickerNext electionSaarland160 daysLatest pollINSA, Federal7 Nov 2026AfD 29CDU/CSU 19Grüne 15Biggest moveCDU, Hamburg▼ −6,0Leading nationallyAfDfor 204 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%

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