Ipsos poll of 12 September 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 6 to 7 Sep 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%+2.0
- AfD18.0%+2.0
- SPD13.0%-1.0
- Grüne11.0%-2.0
- BSW9.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%-1.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler2.0%±0
- Others8.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 8 Aug 2024.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 6 to 7 Sep 2024, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 8 Aug 2024, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has SPD 1.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.8average 14.8
- BSW +1.1average 7.9
- AfD +0.6average 17.4
- FDP -0.5average 4.5
- CDU/CSU -0.3average 32.3
- Grüne -0.3average 11.3
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
- Freie Wähler ±0average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU243
- AfD137
- SPD99
- Grüne83
- BSW68
- CDU/CSU + AfD380 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD342 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne326 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.