Single poll

Ipsos poll of 8 August 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Ipsos
Fieldwork period
2 to 4 Aug 2024
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%±0
  • AfD16.0%±0
  • SPD14.0%±0
  • Grüne13.0%+1.0
  • BSW8.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler2.0%±0
  • Others9.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 11 Jul 2024.

In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 16.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 2 to 4 Aug 2024, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.

Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 11 Jul 2024, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Aug 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.1average 31.1
  • Grüne +1.1average 11.9
  • AfD -1.0average 17.0
  • SPD -0.9average 14.9
  • Freie Wähler -0.2average 2.2
  • BSW -0.1average 8.1
  • FDP -0.1average 5.1
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 220 seatsAfD: 117 seatsSPD: 102 seatsGrüne: 95 seatsBSW: 59 seatsFDP: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU220
  • AfD117
  • SPD102
  • Grüne95
  • BSW59
  • FDP37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD337 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD322 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW374 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP352 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP316 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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