Single poll
Ipsos poll of 11 July 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 5 to 7 Jul 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 16.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 5 to 7 Jul 2024, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 13 Jun 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -1.2average 17.2
- CDU/CSU -0.7average 30.7
- SPD -0.6average 14.6
- BSW +0.6average 7.4
- Grüne -0.5average 12.5
- Freie Wähler -0.4average 2.4
- FDP -0.2average 5.2
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU222
- AfD119
- SPD104
- Grüne89
- BSW59
- FDP37
- CDU/CSU + AfD341 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD326 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW370 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP318 of 630
More
More polls
← Ipsos, 13 Jun 2024Ipsos, 8 Aug 2024 →Average of all pollsters: BundestagSunday question BundestagChronicle 2024
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.