Single poll
Ipsos poll of 10 October 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 4 Oct 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 2 to 4 Oct 2024, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 12 Sep 2024, SPD gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, BSW loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.4average 32.4
- SPD -0.8average 15.8
- Freie Wähler +0.7average 2.3
- AfD +0.4average 17.6
- BSW +0.4average 7.6
- Grüne +0.1average 10.9
- Linke +0.1average 2.9
- FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU235
- AfD137
- SPD114
- Grüne83
- BSW61
- CDU/CSU + AfD372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD349 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne318 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne334 of 630
More
More polls
← Ipsos, 12 Sep 2024Ipsos, 7 Nov 2024 →Average of all pollsters: BundestagSunday question BundestagChronicle 2024
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.