Ipsos poll of 7 November 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 2 Nov 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%+1.0
- AfD18.0%±0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne11.0%±0
- BSW8.0%±0
- FDP5.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others5.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 10 Oct 2024.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 1 to 2 Nov 2024, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 10 Oct 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Nov 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- FDP +1.0average 4.0
- CDU/CSU -0.9average 32.9
- SPD -0.8average 15.8
- AfD +0.7average 17.3
- Freie Wähler +0.7average 2.3
- BSW +0.4average 7.6
- Linke -0.3average 3.3
- Grüne +0.1average 10.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU227
- AfD127
- SPD106
- Grüne78
- BSW57
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + AfD354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD333 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW362 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.