Ipsos poll of 5 December 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Nov 2024 to 1 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%±0
- AfD18.0%±0
- SPD16.0%+1.0
- Grüne13.0%+2.0
- BSW7.0%-1.0
- FDP3.0%-2.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others5.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 7 Nov 2024.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 29 Nov 2024 to 1 Dec 2024, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 7 Nov 2024, Grüne gains 2.0 points, FDP loses 2.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler +1.2average 1.8
- BSW +1.0average 6.0
- CDU/CSU -0.8average 32.8
- FDP -0.8average 3.8
- Grüne +0.7average 12.3
- SPD +0.4average 15.6
- Linke -0.3average 3.3
- AfD -0.1average 18.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU235
- AfD132
- SPD117
- Grüne95
- BSW51
- CDU/CSU + AfD367 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD352 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne330 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne344 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.