Ipsos poll of 9 January 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 4 Jan 2025
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%-2.0
- AfD19.0%+1.0
- SPD16.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP4.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler2.0%-1.0
- Others6.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 5 Dec 2024.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 2 to 4 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 5 Dec 2024, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has BSW 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +1.7average 5.3
- CDU/CSU -1.3average 31.3
- Grüne -0.6average 13.6
- Freie Wähler +0.3average 1.7
- AfD -0.2average 19.2
- SPD -0.2average 16.2
- Linke -0.2average 3.2
- FDP +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU222
- AfD141
- SPD119
- Grüne96
- BSW52
- CDU/CSU + AfD363 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD341 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne318 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne356 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.