Single poll

Ipsos poll of 28 January 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Ipsos
Fieldwork period
16 to 18 Jan 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%±0
  • AfD19.0%±0
  • SPD16.0%±0
  • Grüne14.0%+1.0
  • BSW6.0%-1.0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others8.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Jan 2025.

In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 16 to 18 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.

Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Jan 2025, Grüne gains 1.0 points, BSW loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW +1.4average 4.6
  • AfD -0.9average 19.9
  • Linke -0.9average 3.9
  • CDU/CSU -0.6average 30.6
  • SPD -0.4average 16.4
  • Grüne +0.2average 13.8
  • FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 222 seatsAfD: 141 seatsSPD: 119 seatsGrüne: 104 seatsBSW: 44 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU222
  • AfD141
  • SPD119
  • Grüne104
  • BSW44
  • CDU/CSU + AfD363 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD341 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne326 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne364 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.