Ipsos poll of 9 July 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 4 to 6 Jul 2026
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD28.0%+1.0
- CDU/CSU22.0%-1.0
- Grüne14.0%±0
- SPD13.0%±0
- Linke13.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW3.0%±0
- Others3.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 11 Jun 2026.
In this poll Ipsos has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 22.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 4 to 6 Jul 2026, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 11 Jun 2026, AfD gains 1.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has Linke 2.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Jul 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Linke +2.0average 11.0
- SPD +0.5average 12.5
- FDP -0.5average 4.5
- AfD +0.3average 27.7
- BSW -0.3average 3.3
- CDU/CSU -0.1average 22.1
- Grüne ±0average 14.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD196
- CDU/CSU154
- Grüne98
- SPD91
- Linke91
- AfD + CDU/CSU350 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD385 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke385 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke378 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD343 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke343 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke336 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.