Ipsos poll of 6 August 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 31 Jul 2026 to 2 Aug 2026
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD28.0%±0
- CDU/CSU21.0%-1.0
- Grüne15.0%+1.0
- Linke13.0%±0
- SPD12.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%+1.0
- BSW3.0%±0
- Others3.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Jul 2026.
In this poll Ipsos has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 21.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 31 Jul 2026 to 2 Aug 2026, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Jul 2026, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has Linke 1.8 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 6 Aug 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Linke +1.8average 11.2
- Grüne +1.1average 13.9
- CDU/CSU -0.7average 21.7
- AfD +0.4average 27.6
- FDP +0.4average 4.6
- SPD -0.3average 12.3
- BSW -0.3average 3.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD188
- CDU/CSU141
- Grüne100
- Linke87
- SPD80
- FDP34
- AfD + CDU/CSU329 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke375 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD368 of 630
- AfD + Linke + SPD355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke328 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + FDP322 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD321 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.