Single poll

Ipsos poll of 2 September 2026 for the federal election

Commissioned by
DER SPIEGEL
Fieldwork period
26 to 31 Aug 2026
Respondents
2,105
Method
Online
  • AfD27.0%-1.0
  • CDU/CSU21.0%±0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • Linke13.0%±0
  • SPD12.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • Others4.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 6 Aug 2026.

In this poll Ipsos has AfD ahead on 27.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 21.0%. 2,105 people were surveyed from 26 to 31 Aug 2026, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.

Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 6 Aug 2026, AfD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has Linke 1.8 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Sep 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Linke +1.8average 11.2
  • AfD -0.9average 27.9
  • Grüne +0.8average 14.2
  • SPD -0.4average 12.4
  • FDP +0.4average 4.6
  • CDU/CSU -0.1average 21.1
  • BSW ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 183 seatsCDU/CSU: 142 seatsGrüne: 102 seatsLinke: 88 seatsSPD: 81 seatsFDP: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD183
  • CDU/CSU142
  • Grüne102
  • Linke88
  • SPD81
  • FDP34
  • AfD + CDU/CSU325 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke373 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + SPD366 of 630
  • AfD + Linke + SPD352 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD325 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + FDP319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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