Single poll
Ipsos poll of 8 October 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- DER SPIEGEL
- Fieldwork period
- 30 Sep 2026 to 4 Oct 2026
- Respondents
- 2,002
- Method
- Online
In this poll Ipsos has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 20.0%. 2,002 people were surveyed from 30 Sep 2026 to 4 Oct 2026, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 2 Sep 2026, AfD gains 1.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Oct 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Linke +0.9average 11.1
- BSW -0.6average 3.6
- CDU/CSU +0.3average 19.7
- SPD -0.3average 13.3
- FDP -0.3average 4.3
- AfD -0.2average 28.2
- Grüne -0.1average 15.1
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD201
- CDU/CSU143
- Grüne107
- SPD93
- Linke86
- AfD + CDU/CSU344 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD401 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke394 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke380 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD343 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke336 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke322 of 630
More
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.