Single poll

Ipsos poll of 13 January 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Ipsos
Fieldwork period
9 to 10 Jan 2023
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%±0
  • SPD19.0%±0
  • Grüne18.0%-1.0
  • AfD15.0%+1.0
  • FDP7.0%±0
  • Linke6.0%±0
  • Others8.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 8 Dec 2022.

In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by SPD on 19.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 9 to 10 Jan 2023, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.

Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 8 Dec 2022, Grüne loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 13 Jan 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.3average 28.3
  • AfD +1.1average 13.9
  • Linke +1.1average 4.9
  • SPD -0.7average 19.7
  • Grüne -0.5average 18.5
  • FDP +0.1average 6.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 185 seatsSPD: 130 seatsGrüne: 123 seatsAfD: 103 seatsFDP: 48 seatsLinke: 41 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU185
  • SPD130
  • Grüne123
  • AfD103
  • FDP48
  • Linke41
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne438 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD418 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD411 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP363 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP356 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke349 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP336 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke329 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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