Ipsos poll of 7 December 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 3 Dec 2023
- Respondents
- 2,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%+1.0
- AfD21.0%+1.0
- SPD16.0%-1.0
- Grüne13.0%-2.0
- FDP6.0%±0
- Linke5.0%±0
- Others10.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Nov 2023.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 1 to 3 Dec 2023, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Nov 2023, Grüne loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Dec 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.4average 30.4
- Grüne -1.3average 14.3
- Linke +1.2average 3.8
- FDP +0.9average 5.1
- AfD -0.7average 21.7
- SPD +0.7average 15.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU203
- AfD147
- SPD112
- Grüne91
- FDP42
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + AfD350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne406 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke350 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP336 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke329 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.