Ipsos poll of 10 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 5 to 7 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 2,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%+1.0
- AfD22.0%+1.0
- SPD15.0%-1.0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- FDP6.0%±0
- Linke5.0%±0
- Others9.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 7 Dec 2023.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 5 to 7 Jan 2024, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 7 Dec 2023, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has CDU/CSU 1.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.8average 31.8
- Linke +1.3average 3.7
- FDP +1.1average 4.9
- SPD +0.4average 14.6
- Grüne -0.4average 13.4
- AfD -0.1average 22.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU208
- AfD152
- SPD104
- Grüne90
- FDP41
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + AfD360 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne402 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke347 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke333 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.