Ipsos poll of 8 February 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 4 Feb 2024
- Respondents
- 2,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%±0
- AfD18.0%-4.0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- BSW8.0%
- FDP4.0%-2.0
- Linke4.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler3.0%
- Others5.0%-4.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 10 Jan 2024.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 2 to 4 Feb 2024, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 10 Jan 2024, AfD loses 4.0 points, FDP loses 2.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has BSW 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Feb 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +1.7average 6.3
- AfD -1.4average 19.4
- Linke +0.8average 3.2
- FDP -0.6average 4.6
- CDU/CSU -0.5average 30.5
- SPD -0.3average 15.3
- Grüne -0.3average 13.3
- Freie Wähler +0.3average 2.7
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU225
- AfD135
- SPD113
- Grüne97
- BSW60
- CDU/CSU + AfD360 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD338 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne322 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne345 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.