Ipsos poll of 8 March 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 3 Mar 2024
- Respondents
- 2,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%-1.0
- AfD18.0%±0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne14.0%+1.0
- BSW7.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others6.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 8 Feb 2024.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 1 to 3 Mar 2024, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 8 Feb 2024, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, BSW loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.1average 30.1
- AfD -0.8average 18.8
- BSW +0.8average 6.2
- Freie Wähler +0.5average 2.5
- Grüne +0.3average 13.7
- SPD -0.2average 15.2
- FDP +0.1average 4.9
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU208
- AfD129
- SPD107
- Grüne100
- BSW50
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD337 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne415 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW365 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP344 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne336 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.