Ipsos poll of 9 November 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 3 to 5 Nov 2023
- Respondents
- 2,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU28.0%+2.0
- AfD20.0%-2.0
- SPD17.0%±0
- Grüne15.0%+1.0
- FDP6.0%-1.0
- Linke5.0%±0
- Others9.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 12 Oct 2023.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 3 to 5 Nov 2023, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 12 Oct 2023, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, AfD loses 2.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has CDU/CSU 1.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Nov 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.8average 29.8
- SPD +1.2average 15.8
- AfD -1.0average 21.0
- FDP +0.8average 5.2
- Grüne +0.7average 14.3
- Linke +0.7average 4.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU194
- AfD138
- SPD118
- Grüne104
- FDP41
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + AfD332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne416 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne360 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke347 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke333 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.