Ipsos poll of 12 October 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 6 to 8 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 2,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU26.0%±0
- AfD22.0%+1.0
- SPD17.0%±0
- Grüne14.0%±0
- FDP7.0%-1.0
- Linke5.0%-1.0
- Others9.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 8 Sep 2023.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 6 to 8 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 8 Sep 2023, AfD gains 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.2average 27.2
- FDP +0.9average 6.1
- Grüne -0.6average 14.6
- Linke +0.5average 4.5
- AfD +0.4average 21.6
- SPD +0.1average 16.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU180
- AfD152
- SPD118
- Grüne97
- FDP48
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + AfD332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne395 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne367 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke333 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP325 of 630
- AfD + SPD + FDP318 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.