Single poll

Ipsos poll of 12 November 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Ipsos
Fieldwork period
7 to 9 Nov 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • AfD26.0%+1.0
  • CDU/CSU24.0%+1.0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne12.0%+1.0
  • Linke11.0%-1.0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • BSW4.0%-1.0
  • Others4.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Oct 2025.

In this poll Ipsos has AfD ahead on 26.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 24.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 7 to 9 Nov 2025, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.

Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Oct 2025, AfD gains 1.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has CDU/CSU 1.9 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Nov 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.9average 25.9
  • FDP +1.0average 3.0
  • Linke +0.6average 10.4
  • BSW +0.6average 3.4
  • AfD +0.4average 25.6
  • SPD +0.4average 14.6
  • Grüne +0.4average 11.6
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 186 seatsCDU/CSU: 172 seatsSPD: 107 seatsGrüne: 86 seatsLinke: 79 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD186
  • CDU/CSU172
  • SPD107
  • Grüne86
  • Linke79
  • AfD + CDU/CSU358 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne379 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke372 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke358 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke337 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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