Ipsos poll of 12 November 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 7 to 9 Nov 2025
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD26.0%+1.0
- CDU/CSU24.0%+1.0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne12.0%+1.0
- Linke11.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW4.0%-1.0
- Others4.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Oct 2025.
In this poll Ipsos has AfD ahead on 26.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 24.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 7 to 9 Nov 2025, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Oct 2025, AfD gains 1.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has CDU/CSU 1.9 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Nov 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.9average 25.9
- FDP +1.0average 3.0
- Linke +0.6average 10.4
- BSW +0.6average 3.4
- AfD +0.4average 25.6
- SPD +0.4average 14.6
- Grüne +0.4average 11.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD186
- CDU/CSU172
- SPD107
- Grüne86
- Linke79
- AfD + CDU/CSU358 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne379 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne365 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke358 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke337 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.