Ipsos poll of 9 October 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 3 Oct 2025
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD25.0%±0
- CDU/CSU23.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Linke12.0%±0
- Grüne11.0%-1.0
- BSW5.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%+1.0
- Others5.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 10 Sep 2025.
In this poll Ipsos has AfD ahead on 25.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 23.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 2 to 3 Oct 2025, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 10 Sep 2025, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, BSW gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has CDU/CSU 2.9 points lower and Linke 1.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Oct 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.9average 25.9
- Linke +1.5average 10.5
- BSW +1.2average 3.8
- FDP +0.6average 3.4
- AfD -0.5average 25.5
- SPD +0.3average 14.7
- Grüne -0.2average 11.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD173
- CDU/CSU159
- SPD104
- Linke83
- Grüne76
- BSW35
- AfD + CDU/CSU332 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke360 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne339 of 630
- AfD + Linke + Grüne332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Linke + Grüne318 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.