Ipsos poll of 4 December 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 28 to 30 Nov 2025
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD26.0%±0
- CDU/CSU23.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%+1.0
- Linke10.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW4.0%±0
- Others5.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 12 Nov 2025.
In this poll Ipsos has AfD ahead on 26.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 23.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 28 to 30 Nov 2025, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 12 Nov 2025, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has CDU/CSU 3.1 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Dec 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -3.1average 26.1
- Grüne +1.4average 11.6
- SPD +0.6average 14.4
- FDP +0.6average 3.4
- BSW +0.4average 3.6
- AfD +0.3average 25.7
- Linke -0.3average 10.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD188
- CDU/CSU167
- SPD109
- Grüne94
- Linke72
- AfD + CDU/CSU355 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne391 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne370 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke369 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke333 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.