Ipsos poll of 15 January 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 9 to 11 Jan 2026
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD26.0%±0
- CDU/CSU23.0%±0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- Linke11.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW3.0%-1.0
- Others5.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 4 Dec 2025.
In this poll Ipsos has AfD ahead on 26.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 23.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 9 to 11 Jan 2026, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 4 Dec 2025, Linke gains 1.0 points, BSW loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has CDU/CSU 2.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Jan 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.5average 25.5
- Grüne +0.9average 12.1
- Linke +0.8average 10.2
- SPD +0.7average 14.3
- BSW -0.5average 3.5
- AfD +0.4average 25.6
- FDP +0.4average 3.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD186
- CDU/CSU165
- SPD107
- Grüne93
- Linke79
- AfD + CDU/CSU351 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne386 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne365 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke337 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.