Ipsos poll of 16 February 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 6 to 8 Feb 2026
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD26.0%±0
- CDU/CSU23.0%±0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- Linke12.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW3.0%±0
- Others4.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 15 Jan 2026.
In this poll Ipsos has AfD ahead on 26.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 23.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 6 to 8 Feb 2026, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 15 Jan 2026, Linke gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has CDU/CSU 2.4 points lower and Linke 1.8 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Feb 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.4average 25.4
- Linke +1.8average 10.2
- AfD +1.1average 24.9
- Grüne +1.1average 11.9
- FDP +0.4average 3.6
- BSW -0.4average 3.4
- SPD -0.1average 15.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD184
- CDU/CSU163
- SPD106
- Grüne92
- Linke85
- AfD + CDU/CSU347 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne382 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke375 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke361 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne361 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke340 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.