Single poll

Ipsos poll of 14 May 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Ipsos
Fieldwork period
9 to 10 May 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU25.0%+1.0
  • AfD25.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne12.0%+1.0
  • Linke10.0%-1.0
  • BSW5.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Others4.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Apr 2025.

In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.0%, followed by AfD on 25.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 9 to 10 May 2025, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.

Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Apr 2025, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 14 May 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.2average 26.2
  • BSW +1.2average 3.8
  • AfD +0.8average 24.2
  • SPD -0.6average 15.6
  • Grüne +0.6average 11.4
  • FDP +0.5average 3.5
  • Linke +0.2average 9.8
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 171 seatsAfD: 171 seatsSPD: 103 seatsGrüne: 82 seatsLinke: 69 seatsBSW: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU171
  • AfD171
  • SPD103
  • Grüne82
  • Linke69
  • BSW34
  • CDU/CSU + AfD342 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne356 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke343 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke343 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke322 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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