Single poll

Ipsos poll of 9 April 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Ipsos
Fieldwork period
4 to 5 Apr 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • AfD25.0%+3.0
  • CDU/CSU24.0%-5.0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne11.0%-1.0
  • Linke11.0%+2.0
  • BSW5.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 7 Mar 2025.

In this poll Ipsos has AfD ahead on 25.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 24.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 4 to 5 Apr 2025, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.

Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 7 Mar 2025, CDU/CSU loses 5.0 points, AfD gains 3.0 points, Linke gains 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has CDU/CSU 2.4 points lower and AfD 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Apr 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -2.4average 26.4
  • AfD +1.7average 23.3
  • Linke +0.9average 10.1
  • BSW +0.9average 4.1
  • Grüne -0.6average 11.6
  • SPD -0.5average 15.5
  • FDP +0.5average 3.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 173 seatsCDU/CSU: 166 seatsSPD: 104 seatsGrüne: 76 seatsLinke: 76 seatsBSW: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD173
  • CDU/CSU166
  • SPD104
  • Grüne76
  • Linke76
  • BSW35
  • AfD + CDU/CSU339 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne353 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke353 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne346 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke346 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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