Single poll

Ipsos poll of 11 May 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Ipsos
Fieldwork period
5 to 7 May 2023
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU29.0%+2.0
  • SPD19.0%-2.0
  • AfD16.0%+1.0
  • Grüne15.0%-2.0
  • FDP8.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%+1.0
  • Others8.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 7 Apr 2023.

In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by SPD on 19.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 5 to 7 May 2023, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.

Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 7 Apr 2023, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 11 May 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -0.7average 29.7
  • Grüne -0.6average 15.6
  • FDP +0.6average 7.4
  • Linke +0.4average 4.6
  • AfD +0.2average 15.8
  • SPD ±0average 19.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 198 seatsSPD: 130 seatsAfD: 110 seatsGrüne: 103 seatsFDP: 55 seatsLinke: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU198
  • SPD130
  • AfD110
  • Grüne103
  • FDP55
  • Linke34
  • CDU/CSU + SPD328 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne411 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP363 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP356 of 630
  • SPD + AfD + Grüne343 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke342 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke335 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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