Single poll

Ipsos poll of 9 August 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Ipsos
Fieldwork period
4 to 6 Aug 2023
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU26.0%±0
  • AfD22.0%±0
  • SPD17.0%-1.0
  • Grüne15.0%+1.0
  • FDP8.0%+1.0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others7.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 12 Jul 2023.

In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 4 to 6 Aug 2023, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.

Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 12 Jul 2023, SPD loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has AfD 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Aug 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.7average 20.3
  • SPD -1.2average 18.2
  • FDP +1.2average 6.8
  • CDU/CSU -0.7average 26.7
  • Linke +0.5average 4.5
  • Grüne +0.1average 14.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 176 seatsAfD: 149 seatsSPD: 115 seatsGrüne: 102 seatsFDP: 54 seatsLinke: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU176
  • AfD149
  • SPD115
  • Grüne102
  • FDP54
  • Linke34
  • CDU/CSU + AfD325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne393 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne366 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP345 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke325 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + FDP318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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