Ipsos poll of 12 July 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 7 to 9 Jul 2023
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU26.0%-2.0
- AfD22.0%+3.0
- SPD18.0%-2.0
- Grüne14.0%+1.0
- FDP7.0%-1.0
- Linke5.0%-1.0
- Others8.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Jun 2023.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 7 to 9 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 9 Jun 2023, AfD gains 3.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has AfD 2.2 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.2average 19.8
- CDU/CSU -1.1average 27.1
- Grüne -0.7average 14.7
- SPD -0.5average 18.5
- FDP +0.3average 6.7
- Linke +0.2average 4.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU178
- AfD151
- SPD123
- Grüne96
- FDP48
- Linke34
- CDU/CSU + AfD329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne397 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne370 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP349 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke335 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP322 of 630
- AfD + SPD + FDP322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.