Ipsos poll of 10 July 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 4 to 5 Jul 2025
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU26.0%-1.0
- AfD24.0%+1.0
- SPD15.0%-1.0
- Grüne12.0%+1.0
- Linke12.0%+1.0
- BSW4.0%±0
- FDP3.0%±0
- Others4.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 5 Jun 2025.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 24.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 4 to 5 Jul 2025, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 5 Jun 2025, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has CDU/CSU 2.3 points lower and Linke 2.2 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 Jul 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.3average 28.3
- Linke +2.2average 9.8
- AfD +1.1average 22.9
- SPD +0.4average 14.6
- FDP -0.3average 3.3
- Grüne +0.2average 11.8
- BSW -0.1average 4.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU184
- AfD170
- SPD106
- Grüne85
- Linke85
- CDU/CSU + AfD354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne375 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke375 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne361 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke361 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke354 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke340 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.