Single poll

Ipsos poll of 7 August 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Ipsos
Fieldwork period
1 to 3 Aug 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU25.0%-1.0
  • AfD25.0%+1.0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne11.0%-1.0
  • Linke11.0%-1.0
  • BSW5.0%+1.0
  • FDP3.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 10 Jul 2025.

In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.0%, followed by AfD on 25.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 1 to 3 Aug 2025, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.

Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 10 Jul 2025, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has CDU/CSU 2.3 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Aug 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -2.3average 27.3
  • BSW +1.4average 3.6
  • AfD +1.0average 24.0
  • SPD +0.8average 14.2
  • Linke +0.8average 10.2
  • Grüne -0.7average 11.7
  • FDP -0.5average 3.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 172 seatsAfD: 171 seatsSPD: 103 seatsGrüne: 75 seatsLinke: 75 seatsBSW: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU172
  • AfD171
  • SPD103
  • Grüne75
  • Linke75
  • BSW34
  • CDU/CSU + AfD343 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne350 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke350 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne349 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke349 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke322 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke321 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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