Single poll

Ipsos poll of 3 August 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Ipsos
Fieldwork period
21 to 31 Jul 2021
Respondents
2,002
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%-1.0
  • Grüne20.0%-1.0
  • SPD18.0%+3.0
  • AfD11.0%+1.0
  • FDP10.0%-1.0
  • Linke7.0%-1.0
  • Others7.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 29 Jun 2021.

In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 2,002 people were surveyed from 21 to 31 Jul 2021, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Ipsos.

Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 29 Jun 2021, SPD gains 3.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has FDP 2.1 points lower and SPD 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Aug 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • FDP -2.1average 12.1
  • SPD +1.7average 16.3
  • CDU/CSU -0.9average 27.9
  • Grüne +0.9average 19.1
  • AfD +0.4average 10.6
  • Linke +0.2average 6.8
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 183 seatsGrüne: 135 seatsSPD: 122 seatsAfD: 75 seatsFDP: 68 seatsLinke: 47 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU183
  • Grüne135
  • SPD122
  • AfD75
  • FDP68
  • Linke47
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne318 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD380 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP373 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke352 of 630
  • Grüne + SPD + AfD332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP326 of 630
  • Grüne + SPD + FDP325 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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