Ipsos poll of 10 May 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Ipsos
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 5 May 2024
- Respondents
- 2,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU28.0%-1.0
- AfD18.0%±0
- SPD16.0%+1.0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 10 Apr 2024.
In this poll Ipsos has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 2 to 5 May 2024, method Online, commissioned by Ipsos.
Compared with the previous Ipsos poll of 10 Apr 2024, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Ipsos has CDU/CSU 2.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 May 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.8average 30.8
- BSW +1.2average 5.8
- Grüne -0.9average 13.9
- Linke +0.8average 3.2
- AfD +0.6average 17.4
- SPD +0.4average 15.6
- Freie Wähler +0.4average 2.6
- FDP +0.1average 4.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU203
- AfD130
- SPD116
- Grüne94
- BSW51
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD333 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD319 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW348 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP333 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.