Single poll

INSA poll of 11 September 2026 for the Lower Saxony state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
1 to 8 Sep 2026
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • SPD26.0%+1.0
  • CDU22.0%-3.0
  • AfD21.0%+1.0
  • Grüne15.0%+3.0
  • Linke6.0%-1.0
  • FDP5.0%+1.0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • Others2.0%-2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Apr 2026.

In this poll INSA has SPD ahead on 26.0%, followed by CDU on 22.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 1 to 8 Sep 2026, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Apr 2026, CDU loses 3.0 points, Grüne gains 3.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU 5.0 points lower and Grüne 5.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Sep 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU -5.0average 27.0
  • Grüne +5.0average 10.0
  • FDP +2.0average 3.0
  • Linke -1.0average 7.0
  • SPD ±0average 26.0
  • AfD ±0average 21.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

135 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

SPD: 37 seatsCDU: 31 seatsAfD: 30 seatsGrüne: 21 seatsLinke: 9 seatsFDP: 7 seatsMajority from 68135of 135 seats
  • SPD37
  • CDU31
  • AfD30
  • Grüne21
  • Linke9
  • FDP7
  • SPD + CDU68 of 135
  • SPD + AfD + Grüne88 of 135
  • CDU + AfD + Grüne82 of 135
  • SPD + AfD + Linke76 of 135
  • SPD + AfD + FDP74 of 135
  • CDU + AfD + Linke70 of 135
  • CDU + AfD + FDP68 of 135
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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