Lower Saxony state election 2022: the result
In the Lower Saxony state election on 9 October 2022, SPD became the largest party with 33.4%, 5.3 points ahead of CDU (28.1%). SPD and Grüne have governed since then; how the alliance stands in the polls today is shown on the page with the current election polls.
- Biggest move since 2017
- Grüne +5.8 · CDU −5.5 · AfD +4.7
- Failed to clear the threshold
- FDP (4.7%), Linke (2.7%)
- Government
- SPD + Grüne: 81 of 146 seats
- Polls one week before
- off by 1.3 points per party on average, Grüne overestimated by 2.9
- Turnout
- 60.3%
- Status
- official final result
Result of the 2022 state election
Turnout in the Lower Saxony state election on 9 October 2022 was 60.3%. The Landtag of Lower Saxony has 146 seats; a majority needs 74.
Shares in percent, change on the election of 15 Oct 2017 in points. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.
| Party | Votes 2022 (%) | 2017 (%) | Change | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 33.4% | 36.9% | -3.5 | 57 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union | 28.1% | 33.6% | -5.5 | 47 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 14.5% | 8.7% | +5.8 | 24 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 10.9% | 6.2% | +4.7 | 18 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 4.7% | 7.5% | -2.8 | – |
| Die Linke | 2.7% | 4.6% | -1.9 | – |
| Others | 5.7% | 2.5% | +3.2 | – |
Source: state returning officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Official seats, 146 in total including overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV
Seat distribution in the Landtag of Lower Saxony after the 2022 result
146 seats by the official result, including overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold of 5%.
- SPD57
- CDU47
- Grüne24
- AfD18
Which alliances had a majority after the 2022 election
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority; the coalition actually formed is highlighted.
- SPD + CDU104 of 146
- SPD + GrüneGovernment81 of 146
- SPD + AfD75 of 146
- CDU + Grüne + AfD89 of 146
The polls in the last 30 days before the 2022 state election
13 polls between 9 Sep 2022 and 7 Oct 2022, each one available individually.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | CDU | Grüne | AfD | FDP | Linke | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 7 Oct 2022 | 35 | 27 | 15.5 | 10 | 5 | 3 | ||
| Civey | 6 Oct 2022 | 33 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 Oct 2022 | 33 | 28 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 3.5 | ||
| INSA | 4 Oct 2022 | 31 | 28 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Oct 2022 | 35 | 27 | 15.5 | 11 | 4.5 | 2.5 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 30 Sep 2022 | 32 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 29 Sep 2022 | 32 | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 3 | ||
| Forsa | 28 Sep 2022 | 31 | 27 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 24 Sep 2022 | 35 | 27.5 | 15.5 | 9 | 5 | 2.5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 22 Sep 2022 | 32 | 28 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 17 Sep 2022 | 34.5 | 25.5 | 17.5 | 9 | 5.5 | 3 | ||
| Civey | 13 Sep 2022 | 31 | 29 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 4 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 9 Sep 2022 | 34.5 | 26 | 17 | 8.5 | 6 | 3 | ||
| Min – Max | 31–35 | 25.5–30 | 15.5–19 | 7–11 | 4.5–6 | 2.5–4 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
Last poll before the election: Institut Wahlkreisprognose, 7 Oct 2022
Who came closest before the 2022 election?
Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.
| Pollster | Poll dated | SPD | CDU | Grüne | AfD | FDP | Linke | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 9 Oct 2022 | 33.4% | 28.1% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 Oct 2022 (3 days before) | -0.4 | -0.1 | +1.5 | -0.9 | +0.3 | +0.8 | 0.7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 7 Oct 2022 (2 days before) | +1.6 | -1.1 | +1.0 | -0.9 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 0.9 |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2022 (5 days before) | -2.4 | -0.1 | +1.5 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.3 | 0.9 |
| Civey | 6 Oct 2022 (3 days before) | -0.4 | -1.1 | +2.5 | -0.9 | +0.3 | +1.3 | 1.1 |
| Infratest dimap | 29 Sep 2022 (10 days before) | -1.4 | +1.9 | +1.5 | -1.9 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 1.2 |
| Forsa | 28 Sep 2022 (11 days before) | -2.4 | -1.1 | +4.5 | -1.9 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 1.7 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.