Single poll

INSA poll of 19 October 2023 for the Lower Saxony state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
9 to 16 Oct 2023
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU29.0%+1.0
  • SPD27.0%-4.0
  • AfD17.0%+6.0
  • Grüne13.0%-3.0
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%-1.0
  • Others7.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 4 Oct 2022.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 29.0%, followed by SPD on 27.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 9 to 16 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 4 Oct 2022, AfD gains 6.0 points, SPD loses 4.0 points, Grüne loses 3.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 5.0 points lower and AfD 3.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -5.0average 32.0
  • AfD +3.0average 14.0
  • FDP -1.0average 5.0
  • CDU ±0average 29.0
  • Grüne ±0average 13.0
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

135 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 46 seatsSPD: 42 seatsAfD: 27 seatsGrüne: 20 seatsMajority from 68135of 135 seats
  • CDU46
  • SPD42
  • AfD27
  • Grüne20
  • CDU + SPD88 of 135
  • CDU + AfD73 of 135
  • SPD + AfD69 of 135
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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