Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 28 October 2023 for the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 19 to 28 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,020
- Method
- Online
- AfD35.0%+11.0
- SPD20.0%-7.0
- CDU17.5%+2.5
- Linke8.0%±0
- Grüne6.5%-6.5
- FDP4.0%-1.0
- Others9.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 15 Aug 2022.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD ahead on 35.0%, followed by SPD on 20.0%. 1,020 people were surveyed from 19 to 28 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 15 Aug 2022, AfD gains 11.0 points, SPD loses 7.0 points, Grüne loses 6.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 5.0 points lower and AfD 4.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -5.0average 25.0
- AfD +4.5average 30.5
- Linke -1.0average 9.0
- CDU -0.5average 18.0
- Grüne -0.5average 7.0
- FDP +0.5average 3.5
Seat projection from this poll
71 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, electoral threshold 5%.
- AfD29
- SPD16
- CDU14
- Linke7
- Grüne5
- AfD + SPD45 of 71
- AfD + CDU43 of 71
- AfD + Linke36 of 71
- SPD + CDU + Linke37 of 71
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.