Single poll

Forsa poll of 15 May 2024 for the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election

Commissioned by
Ostsee-Zeitung
Fieldwork period
25 Apr 2024 to 3 May 2024
Respondents
1,005
Method
Telefon & Online
  • AfD25.0%-6.0
  • SPD20.0%-1.0
  • CDU19.0%+1.0
  • BSW14.0%+9.0
  • Grüne7.0%-1.0
  • Linke6.0%-2.0
  • FDP3.0%±0
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 19 Jan 2024.

In this poll Forsa has AfD ahead on 25.0%, followed by SPD on 20.0%. 1,005 people were surveyed from 25 Apr 2024 to 3 May 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Ostsee-Zeitung.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 19 Jan 2024, BSW gains 9.0 points, AfD loses 6.0 points, Linke loses 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has BSW 4.0 points higher and CDU 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 15 May 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW +4.0average 10.0
  • CDU -2.0average 21.0
  • AfD -1.0average 26.0
  • SPD -1.0average 21.0
  • Grüne -1.0average 8.0
  • Linke +1.0average 5.0
  • FDP -0.5average 3.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

71 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, electoral threshold 5%.

AfD: 19 seatsSPD: 16 seatsCDU: 15 seatsBSW: 11 seatsGrüne: 5 seatsLinke: 5 seatsMajority from 3671of 71 seats
  • AfD19
  • SPD16
  • CDU15
  • BSW11
  • Grüne5
  • Linke5
  • AfD + SPD + CDU50 of 71
  • AfD + SPD + BSW46 of 71
  • AfD + CDU + BSW45 of 71
  • SPD + CDU + BSW42 of 71
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne40 of 71
  • AfD + SPD + Linke40 of 71
  • AfD + CDU + Grüne39 of 71
  • AfD + CDU + Linke39 of 71
  • SPD + CDU + Grüne36 of 71
  • SPD + CDU + Linke36 of 71
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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