Single poll

INSA poll of 17 March 2026 for the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election

Commissioned by
Nordkurier
Fieldwork period
6 to 16 Mar 2026
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • AfD34.0%+5.0
  • SPD26.0%+5.0
  • CDU12.0%-5.0
  • Linke10.0%-5.0
  • Grüne5.0%±0
  • BSW5.0%-1.0
  • FDP3.0%
  • Others5.0%-2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Apr 2025.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 34.0%, followed by SPD on 26.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 6 to 16 Mar 2026, method Online, commissioned by Nordkurier.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Apr 2025, AfD gains 5.0 points, SPD gains 5.0 points, CDU loses 5.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.0 points lower and SPD 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Mar 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -2.0average 36.0
  • SPD +2.0average 24.0
  • Linke -1.5average 11.5
  • CDU -1.0average 13.0
  • Grüne +1.0average 4.0
  • FDP +1.0average 2.0
  • BSW -0.5average 5.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

71 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, electoral threshold 5%.

AfD: 26 seatsSPD: 20 seatsCDU: 9 seatsLinke: 8 seatsGrüne: 4 seatsBSW: 4 seatsMajority from 3671of 71 seats
  • AfD26
  • SPD20
  • CDU9
  • Linke8
  • Grüne4
  • BSW4
  • AfD + SPD46 of 71
  • AfD + CDU + Linke43 of 71
  • AfD + CDU + Grüne39 of 71
  • AfD + CDU + BSW39 of 71
  • AfD + Linke + Grüne38 of 71
  • AfD + Linke + BSW38 of 71
  • SPD + CDU + Linke37 of 71
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.