Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election 2031 forecast: who is ahead?
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election, expected autumn 2031. Polls as of 17 September 2026, 5 pollsters. AfD leads with 36.8%; AfD remains the strongest party in 92% of simulated outcomes. Polls are not a prediction but a snapshot of today's mood. How far they typically still move before the election is shown further down.
If the state election were held today
Unweighted average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 120 days, compared with the result of the last election on 20 Sep 2026.
- AfD36.8%
- SPD32.6%
- Linke10.2%
- CDU7.2%
- Grüne5.2%
- BSW4.0%
- Others3.6%
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll.
What the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania would look like today
71 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, without overhang and levelling seats. Electoral threshold 5%.
- AfD28
- SPD25
- Linke8
- CDU6
- Grüne4
- AfD + SPD53 of 71
- AfD + Linke36 of 71
- SPD + Linke + CDU39 of 71
- AfD + CDU + Grüne38 of 71
- SPD + Linke + Grüne37 of 71
How likely are the majorities?
The seat projection is recalculated 3,000 times with randomly varied polling figures. The spread per party follows from sampling error and from how far polls have missed that party at earlier elections. This is the uncertainty of the polls today, not the uncertainty up to polling day.
Majority in parliament
- AfD + SPDover 99%
- AfD + Linke67%
- SPD + Linke + CDU88%
- AfD + CDU + Grüne66%
- SPD + Linke + Grüne61%
- AfD + CDU27%
- SPD + Linke23%
- SPD + CDU2%
- Linke + CDUunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- BSW (±1.3)21%
- Grüne (±1.8)54%
- CDU (±2.9)79%
Largest party
- AfD92%
- SPD8%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
How reliable is a forecast this far before the election?
For every election since 2017 we calculated the polling average as it stood 7 days to 2 years before polling day and compared it with the official result. Deviation per party is the average across all parties at an election; largest deviation is the party that was furthest off.
Two years ahead, polling averages at 25 elections were off by 4.5 points per party on average, and by 9.8 points for the party missed most. AfD's lead is within this range, so the lead is not secure.
| Lead time | Elections | Deviation per party | Largest deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 38 | ± 1.6 points | ± 4.0 points |
| 1 month | 37 | ± 2.3 points | ± 5.8 points |
| 3 months | 36 | ± 2.9 points | ± 7.0 points |
| 6 months | 34 | ± 3.5 points | ± 8.0 points |
| 1 year | 31 | ± 3.9 points | ± 8.7 points |
| 2 yearsnow | 25 | ± 4.5 points | ± 9.8 points |
Only elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania since 2017
| Lead time | Elections | Deviation per party | Largest deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 2 | ± 1.3 points | ± 2.5 points |
| 1 month | 2 | ± 3.0 points | ± 7.4 points |
| 3 months | 2 | ± 4.8 points | ± 11.6 points |
| 6 months | 2 | ± 5.3 points | ± 12.0 points |
| 1 year | 2 | ± 6.6 points | ± 15.0 points |
| 2 yearsnow | 2 | ± 7.0 points | ± 16.4 points |
What has shifted since the last election
Polling trend since 20 September 2026. The “Change” view shows gains and losses since the start of the period.
What this forecast can and cannot do
An election poll measures the mood at the time of fieldwork. A forecast in the strict sense only exists on election night at 6 pm, from the exit polls. Everything before that is a projection of the polls: we show what the current figures would mean, and how large the error of such projections has been in the past.
Lead candidates, coalition statements and issues can change before the 2031 state election. Shortly before the election, polls become more frequent and more accurate; this page updates automatically with every new poll.
Source of the polls: dawum.de (Open Database License). Averages, seats, probabilities and accuracy are our own calculations at wahlergebnisse.io.