What is the polling trend?

The polling trend is the movement of the Sunday question over time. Here it is shown as a rolling average of all pollsters so that single outliers do not shape the picture.

What is the difference between Sonntagstrend, Meinungstrend and Deutschlandtrend?

These are product names of individual pollsters: the INSA Meinungstrend for BILD, Forsa's RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, the ARD Deutschlandtrend by Infratest dimap and the ZDF Politbarometer by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. The trend on this page combines all of them.

Polling trend · as of 29 September 2026

Polling trend: who gains and who loses in the polls

Name: German polling trend
Creator: wahlergebnisse.io
License: https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/

The polling trend shows the rolling average of all pollsters (federal: 45 days) over time, plus each party's change since the last election, for the Bundestag and every state parliament. Sonntagstrend, Meinungstrend and Deutschlandtrend are the names of individual pollsters' series; the trend here combines them.

Federal election

Federal polling trend since 29 September 2025

Rolling 45-day average, shares in percent

End month

Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 45 days. Period 29 Sep 2025 to 29 Sep 2026. Tap the tiles to hide parties.

Since 29 Sept 2025 Grüne +3.3 and AfD +2.2 gained, while CDU/CSU −5.5 and SPD −1.3 lost points.

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All parliaments

Trend since the last election per parliament

Largest party in the average, biggest gainer and biggest loser against the last election result in points. Each row leads to the full trend.

Polling trend per parliament: largest party, gainer and loser since the last election
Parliament	Largest party	Gainer	Loser	As of	Trend
Federal election	AfD 28.0%	AfD +7.2	CDU/CSU -8.4	29 Sep 2026	Trend
Baden-Württemberg	Grüne 27.8%	SPD +1.8	CDU -2.4	10 Apr 2026	Trend
Bavaria	CSU 38.0%	AfD +5.4	Freie Wähler -3.8	12 Sep 2026	Trend
Berlin	Linke 21.4%	–	–	18 Sep 2026	Trend
Brandenburg	AfD 35.5%	Linke +6.5	SPD -7.9	24 Jun 2026	Trend
Bremen	CDU 22.5%	Grüne +3.1	SPD -8.8	19 Aug 2026	Trend
Hamburg	SPD 30.5%	AfD +3.5	SPD -3.0	20 Jun 2026	Trend
Hesse	CDU 31.0%	Linke +3.4	CDU -3.6	29 Apr 2026	Trend
Lower Saxony	SPD 26.0%	AfD +10.1	SPD -7.4	11 Sep 2026	Trend
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania	AfD 36.8%	–	–	17 Sep 2026	Trend
North Rhine-Westphalia	CDU 30.5%	AfD +14.1	SPD -11.2	23 Sep 2026	Trend
Rhineland-Palatinate	CDU 28.0%	AfD +4.5	SPD -6.9	20 Aug 2026	Trend
Saarland	SPD 27.0%	AfD +17.3	SPD -16.5	3 Dec 2025	Trend
Saxony	AfD 42.0%	AfD +11.4	CDU -10.9	21 May 2026	Trend
Saxony-Anhalt	AfD 42.0%	–	–	3 Sep 2026	Trend
Schleswig-Holstein	CDU 30.0%	AfD +12.1	CDU -13.4	14 Jul 2026	Trend
Thuringia	AfD 40.0%	AfD +7.2	BSW -8.8	2 Jul 2026	Trend
European election	CDU/CSU 30.1%	–	–	8 Jun 2024	Trend

Questions about the polling trend

What is the polling trend?: The polling trend is the movement of the Sunday question over time. Here it is shown as a rolling average of all pollsters so that single outliers do not shape the picture.
What is the difference between Sonntagstrend, Meinungstrend and Deutschlandtrend?: These are product names of individual pollsters: the INSA Meinungstrend for BILD, Forsa's RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, the ARD Deutschlandtrend by Infratest dimap and the ZDF Politbarometer by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. The trend on this page combines all of them.