Sunday question Hamburg: if the state election were this Sunday
"Which party would you vote for if the state election were held next Sunday?" This page shows the answer for Hamburg averaged across the 2 pollsters whose latest poll is at most 180 days old, compared with the result of the last election on 2 March 2025. Below: the latest poll from each pollster and the trend.
Sunday question Hamburg: average of all pollsters
One column per pollster with the date of its latest poll, on the right the average and the last election result.
| Party | Average 30 Sep 2026 | Trend Research Hamburg 30 Sep 2026 | INSA 20 Jun 2026 | 2025 election |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPD | 30.0 | 29.0 | 31.0 | 33.5 |
| Grüne | 17.5 | 18.0 | 17.0 | 18.5 |
| Linke | 14.5 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 11.2 |
| CDU | 14.0 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 19.8 |
| AfD | 13.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 7.5 |
| FDP | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| BSW | 3.0 | 3.0 | – | 1.8 |
| Volt | 2.0 | 2.0 | – | 3.2 |
| Others | 5.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 2.2 |
Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.
SPD leads with 30.0%, 12.5 points ahead of Grüne (17.5%). Biggest movement over 180 days: CDU −6.0 and AfD +3.0.
The latest Sunday question from every pollster for Hamburg
One row per pollster, each showing its most recently published federal poll. Differences between pollsters are normal: they sample, weight and treat undecided voters differently.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | Grüne | Linke | CDU | AfD | FDP | BSW | Volt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Research Hamburg | 30 Sep 2026 | 29 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| INSA | 20 Jun 2026 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 3 | – | – | ||
| Infratest dimap | 25 Mar 2026 | 30 | 20 | 12 | 20 | 10 | – | – | – | ||
| Min – Max | 29–31 | 17–20 | 12–15 | 12–20 | 10–14 | – | – | – | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
If the state election were today: what parliament would look like
Projected seat distribution from the polling average, 121 seats, majority from 61.
- SPD40
- Grüne24
- Linke20
- CDU19
- AfD18
SPD would be the largest group with 40 of 121 seats; a majority needs 61. FDP, BSW and Volt would miss the threshold and win no seats.
Polling trend Hamburg: how the Sunday question has moved
Since 31 Oct 2024 Linke +8.7 and AfD +3.6 gained, while CDU −4.0 and Grüne −3.3 lost points.
What happened recently
New polls, official results and fixed election dates of the past weeks, each with its date.
- PeopleMarkus Fischbach new in parliament: Rheinland-Pfalz
- PeopleJürgen Harrer new in parliament: Hessen
- Local electionsLower Saxony local elections: data as of 31 Oct 2026
- PeopleStefan Evers: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleAnne Helm: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleKai Wegner: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleMartin Pätzold: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleAlexander J. Herrmann: mandate ended, Berlin
What the Sunday question tells you, and what it does not
Pollsters usually survey 1,000 to 2,500 eligible voters per poll, by phone, online or a mix. Raw answers are weighted by age, gender, region, education and past voting behaviour; undecided voters and non-voters are excluded. The published figure is each party's share among those naming a party.
The Sunday question measures the mood on the day of the survey; it is not a forecast. How an expectation for election day is derived from it is shown in the election forecast. Each single poll carries a margin of error of roughly two to three points per party; averaging several pollsters smooths out outliers.
Which pollsters systematically rate whom higher or lower is shown under house effects, their accuracy before past elections under pollsters compared. The terms are explained in the election glossary.
Frequently asked questions about the Sunday question
- If the state election in Hamburg were held today, who would win?
- Averaged across 2 pollsters, SPD leads with 30.0%, ahead of Grüne with 17.5% (as of 30 Sep 2026). Whether that becomes a government is decided by the seat distribution.
- When is the next state election in Hamburg?
- The next state election in Hamburg is expected spring 2030. The last one took place on 2 March 2025.
- How often is the Sunday question asked for Hamburg?
- In the past twelve months 3 polls from 3 pollsters were published. Polling is far more frequent before state elections than mid-term.
- How is the polling average calculated?
- We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 180 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.
- Why do pollsters differ?
- Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.
More on Hamburg
Sunday question in the other states