Single poll

INSA poll of 20 June 2026 for the Hamburg state election

Commissioned by
INSA
Fieldwork period
2 to 9 Jun 2026
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • SPD31.0%-1.0
  • Grüne17.0%+1.0
  • CDU16.0%-1.0
  • Linke14.0%+1.0
  • AfD12.0%+1.0
  • FDP3.0%±0
  • Others7.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Feb 2025.

In this poll INSA has SPD ahead on 31.0%, followed by Grüne on 17.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 2 to 9 Jun 2026, method Online, commissioned by INSA.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Feb 2025, SPD loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, CDU loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU 4.0 points lower and Grüne 3.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Jun 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU -4.0average 20.0
  • Grüne -3.0average 20.0
  • Linke +2.0average 12.0
  • AfD +2.0average 10.0
  • SPD +1.0average 30.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.

SPD: 42 seatsGrüne: 23 seatsCDU: 21 seatsLinke: 19 seatsAfD: 16 seatsMajority from 61121of 121 seats
  • SPD42
  • Grüne23
  • CDU21
  • Linke19
  • AfD16
  • SPD + Grüne65 of 121
  • SPD + CDU63 of 121
  • SPD + Linke61 of 121
  • Grüne + CDU + Linke63 of 121
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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