Single poll

INSA poll of 27 February 2025 for the Hamburg state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
24 to 26 Feb 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • SPD32.0%-6.0
  • CDU17.0%+4.0
  • Grüne16.0%-7.0
  • Linke13.0%+5.0
  • AfD11.0%+4.0
  • FDP3.0%-2.0
  • BSW3.0%
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 19 Feb 2020.

In this poll INSA has SPD ahead on 32.0%, followed by CDU on 17.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 24 to 26 Feb 2025, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 19 Feb 2020, Grüne loses 7.0 points, SPD loses 6.0 points, Linke gains 5.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Linke 4.7 points higher and Grüne 3.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Feb 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Linke +4.7average 8.3
  • Grüne -3.0average 19.0
  • AfD +1.5average 9.5
  • CDU -1.0average 18.0
  • SPD -0.3average 32.3
  • FDP -0.3average 3.3
  • BSW -0.3average 3.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.

SPD: 43 seatsCDU: 23 seatsGrüne: 22 seatsLinke: 18 seatsAfD: 15 seatsMajority from 61121of 121 seats
  • SPD43
  • CDU23
  • Grüne22
  • Linke18
  • AfD15
  • SPD + CDU66 of 121
  • SPD + Grüne65 of 121
  • SPD + Linke61 of 121
  • CDU + Grüne + Linke63 of 121
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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