Single poll

INSA poll of 19 February 2020 for the Hamburg state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
12 to 17 Feb 2020
Respondents
1,006
Method
Telefon & Online
  • SPD38.0%+13.0
  • Grüne23.0%-3.0
  • CDU13.0%-4.0
  • Linke8.0%-4.0
  • AfD7.0%-1.0
  • FDP5.0%-3.0
  • Others6.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 12 Nov 2019.

In this poll INSA has SPD ahead on 38.0%, followed by Grüne on 23.0%. 1,006 people were surveyed from 12 to 17 Feb 2020, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 12 Nov 2019, SPD gains 13.0 points, CDU loses 4.0 points, Linke loses 4.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 3.5 points higher and Grüne 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Feb 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +3.5average 34.5
  • Grüne -1.5average 24.5
  • CDU -1.2average 14.2
  • Linke -0.9average 8.9
  • FDP -0.7average 5.7
  • AfD ±0average 7.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.

SPD: 49 seatsGrüne: 30 seatsCDU: 17 seatsLinke: 10 seatsAfD: 9 seatsFDP: 6 seatsMajority from 61121of 121 seats
  • SPD49
  • Grüne30
  • CDU17
  • Linke10
  • AfD9
  • FDP6
  • SPD + Grüne79 of 121
  • SPD + CDU66 of 121
  • SPD + Linke + AfD68 of 121
  • SPD + Linke + FDP65 of 121
  • SPD + AfD + FDP64 of 121
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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