Trend Research Hamburg poll of 30 September 2026 for the Hamburg state election
- State
- Hamburg
- Commissioned by
- Radio Hamburg
- Fieldwork period
- 22 to 27 Sep 2026
- Respondents
- 975
- Method
- Online
In this poll Trend Research Hamburg has SPD ahead on 29.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 975 people were surveyed from 22 to 27 Sep 2026, method Online, commissioned by Radio Hamburg.
Compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 27 Jan 2025, Linke gains 9.0 points, SPD loses 5.0 points, CDU loses 4.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Trend Research Hamburg has CDU 6.0 points lower and AfD 3.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Sep 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU -6.0average 18.0
- AfD +3.0average 11.0
- Linke +2.0average 13.0
- SPD -1.5average 30.5
- Grüne -0.5average 18.5
- FDP ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- SPD40
- Grüne25
- Linke21
- AfD19
- CDU16
- SPD + Grüne65 of 121
- SPD + Linke61 of 121
- SPD + AfD + CDU75 of 121
- Grüne + Linke + AfD65 of 121
- Grüne + Linke + CDU62 of 121
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.